Sunday's Super Single 3

AZ Alkmaar vs Heerenveen Over 2.5 & Bts

Head To Head: Heerenveen won 4-2 at home to AZ the last time the two sides met in April. Over all 42 meetings between the two sides, the standings are close with Heerenveen winning 15, drawing 9 and losing 15 against AZ.

Stats: Over 2.5 goals were scored in four of the last six meetings between the two sides, with both teams scoring in 50% of these. Heerenveen have won or drawn in nine of the last twelve meetings between the two sides.

Reason: AZ Alkmaar finished 4th in the 2015/2016 Eredivisie season, qualifying themselves for the UEFA Europa league for a fifth consecutive season. AZ won 1-0 against Greek side PAS Giannina in the first leg of the Europa League third qualifying round last Thursday and will face them for the second leg on the Thursday before this fixture on Sunday. The hosts have been in stunning pre-season form, winning eight of their nine club friendlies by three goals or more. While many of these fixtures were against weaker opponents, a 3-0 win at home to Hertha Berlin, who are also Europa League qualified, shows the quality is there despite not having the same resources as top Dutch sides such as PSV and Ajax.

SV Heerenveen had a disappointing 2015/2016 campaign and finished just 12th overall – it has been three years since the visitors last managed UEFA Europa League qualification. Heerenveen’s problem last season was their tendency towards conceding goals, letting in the fourth most goals in the Eredivisie last season and as such, they have made a sensible summer signing of central defender Stijn Schaars from champions PSV, who should help to bring some stability. Heerenveen have had a shorter and less successful pre-season than the hosts, with a 2-0 defeat to La Liga side Real Sociedad last Saturday not helping their confidence heading into this fixture.

Over historical meetings between the two sides, along with the overall trends of the sides, mean goals certainly seem likely for this match. AZ scored the most goals outside of the top two last season, averaging over 2 goals per game and Heerenveen were one of the highest conceding teams due to a shaky back four. Note also that all of the last three meetings between the two ended with high scoring results where both teams scored and over 2.5 goals were scored (4-2, 3-1, and 5-2). Though Heerenveen have dominated recent meetings between the two sides, AZ have the much better squad depth and stronger performances in their pre-season and Europa League so we expect this trend to change sooner rather than later.

Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 1.9+